And The Survey Says… “Aquino-Roxas Landslide Possible” (Retitled. Updated)
Now breaking out.
BusinessWorld is just now reporting the results of the Social Weather Station’s pre-election survey for the presidential, vice presidential and senatorial derbies.
This is likely going to be the final poll data we’ll be seeing before Filipinos go to the pols on the 10th of May other than if the other main opnion polling firm, Pulse Asia reports its own new pre-election dipstick.
At Midfield is sharing here the top end data for the races to give us an over-all sense of the nationa sentiment the SWS is getting.
According to BusinessWorld, “as in two earlier surveys, the respondents were asked to fill out ballots. The SWS polled 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao. The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.”
But these data cannot by any means ever supplant the actual conduct of the allotting.
The presidential derby:
With the race to Malacañang nearing the homestretch, presidential bet Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has gained a double-digit lead over his colleague and main rival, Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., in the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) Pre-Election Survey.
The April 16 to 19 nationwide poll, conducted three weeks before the May 10 elections, saw Mr. Aquino — the Liberal Party bet — gaining a point to 38% compared to a two-point drop to 26% for the Nacionalista Party’s Mr. Villar.
The lead between the two opened up to 12 points from nine previously in the BW-SWS survey of March 19-22.
The vice presidential race:
Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” C. Binay of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) has caught up with Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) bet Sen. Loren B. Legarda in the race for the vice-presidency but Liberal Party candidate Sen. Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas continues to enjoy a large, albeit narrower, lead.
The latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) Pre-Election Survey, conducted last April 16 to 19, saw Mr. Binay gaining four points to 25%, just edging out Ms. Legarda who lost a point to 24%.
Mr. Roxas’s score, meanwhile, fell to below 40% for the first time: he was down three points to 39% with three weeks to go before the May 10 elections.
The race for 12 senatorial slots:
Statistically tied at the top were reelectionists Senator Ramon “Bong” B. Revilla, Jr. of the administration Lakas-Kampi-CMD (54%) and Jose “Jinggoy” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino or PMP (53%), who gained a point each from the previous survey of March 19-22.
Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago of the People’s Reform Party maintained her rank at third (43% from 44%), while Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) gained a point to join Sen. Pilar Juliana “Pia” S. Cayetano of the Nacionalista Party (NP) in joint fourth to fifth. Ms. Cayetano’s score slipped by six points to tie at 36% with Mr. Enrile.
Former senator Franklin M. Drilon of the Liberal Party (LP) slipped a notch and a point (35%) to land in sixth place, while former senator Vicente “Tito” C. Sotto III of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (33%) and Ralph G. Recto (30%) maintained their seventh and eight places, respectively.
The ranking of independent and former senator Sergio “Serge” D. Osmeña III, formerly 11th, rose to ninth (29%); followed by Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. of Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (28%), down a notch to 10th; and Senator Manuel “Lito” M. Lapid of the administration party (27%), 11th and also down a place.
These candidates, SWS said, have consistently been in the the list of 12 possible winners since a Dec. 5-10 survey.
In 12th and last spot was former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Cesar C. Remulla of the NP with 21%, although well within statistical striking distance of Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto “TG” L. Guingona III (LP) and businessman Jose “Joey” P. de Venecia III (PMP) who both scored 20%
There are a total of 50-M plus registered voters with election authorities projecting a turnout well above the historical rate because of the watershed implementation of n automated vote count system.
The BW-SWS survey comes alongside that by Manila Standard Today which was bought just two weeks ago by known GMA ally Congressman Martin Romualdez of Leyte.
The MST poll also has the Aquino-Roxam tande comfortably ahead:
The Nacionalista Party is trying to keep a stiff upper lip saying it had previous come from a 50 point deficit and “we can recover still.”
One wonders how this is possible with the election exacyly two weeks away now.
Political analyst Ramon Casible says if the trend does not change “the LP ticket may be headed for a landslide win.”
The leaders aside, this corner thinks the other big story is this: Makati Vice Mayor Jejomar Binay has now overtaken Sen. Loren Legarda who now seems to be facing the biggest defeat in her political career: