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SWS Narrows Down The ‘Serious’ Bets (Updated)

October 14, 2009

TOP 5

The elections are still 7 month away but the survey numbers have essentially narrowed the field of ‘serious’ candidates to Sen. Noynoy Aquino, Sen Manny Villar, ex president Estrada, Sen. Chiz Escudero, Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro, and evangelist Eddie Villanueva.

And if we are to believe the latest dipstick of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) putative administration bet Teodoro will get a quite severe drubbing while Aquino, despite his impressive lead, will be in for a battle royale against Villar, Estrada, and Estrada, assuming the come-backing former president is disqualified from running.

SWS 2009 3 Q 2009 PRES'L SURVEY TABLE main

http://www.sws.org.ph/

Mr. Teodoro’s dismal rating demolishes the myth peddled by administration partisans that when ‘anointed’ the administration coalition standard bearer would see his voter preference rating hitting the double digit mark.

The truth is if the coffee shop tongue-waggers are given credence, Teodoro may even be lose out to a new administration wannabee when the formal Lakas-KAMPI-CMD nominating convention is held very soon.

The person could very well be public works secretary Hermogenes Ebdane.

Ahead of the release of the SWS’s latest survey(Sept. 118-21,2009), news reports have all but affirmed even the presidential and vice presidential pairings.

These are the Aquino- (Mar)Roxas, Villar-(Noli) De Castro, Estrada-(Jojo) Binay, and Escudero-(Loren) Legarda tickets.

These past nearly three weeks marked by the disastrous floods and landslides have forced the aspirants to either prudently delay their official declarations (like in the case of Natonslist People’s Coalition bet Escudeo) or push their political agenda unashamedly (like Villar’s ‘branded’ relief packs).

villar relief pack montage

Of course, the top-of-mind political reports cannot be ‘encashed’ yet, but they do tend to influence the thinking of the undecideds.

But hey, paraphrasing the poem, the wannabees have miles to go before they can sleep, with room for further realignments, and even dropouts, before the next President is installed in Malacanang.

Postscript:

The SWS news release on the survey includes this explanatory part:

The Third Quarter of 2009 Social Weather Survey was conducted from September 18-21, 2009, with a sample size of 1,800 adults, for an error margin of ±2.3%.

The surveys of September and December 2007, March and June 2008, and February 2009 had sample sizes of 1,200 adults, for error margins of ±3%. The September 2008, December 2008, and June 2009 surveys had sample sizes of 1,500 adults, for error margins of ±2.5%. The May 2009 survey had a sample size of 7,000 registered voters, for an error margin of ±1.2%.

All surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews.

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