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Malacanang ‘Happy’ About Latest SWS Survey; Villar Seen As “Ideological Ally of GMA”

December 16, 2009

The  spinmeisters and electoral planners of Malacanang are in a celebratory mood following the release of the latest Social Weather Stations’ dipstick on the ‘leading’ presidential hopefuls.

The survey was commissioned by revered Puerto Princesa mayor Edward Hagedorn who is well-respected on either side of the political divide in Philippine society.

Here’s the SWS chart for November and the survey firm’s news release first for proper appreciation:

SWS November 4-8, 2009 Survey:

Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar top the people’s “three best leaders to succeed PGMA in 2010”

Social Weather Stations

As authorized by the sponsor, for the information of the public, Social Weather Stations is disclosing the results of an item on the Best Leaders to Succeed President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in 2010 in the November 4-8, 2009 survey commissioned by Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn.

The November 4-8, 2009 survey found Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III taking the top spot in the people’s three best leaders to succeed President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010.

The question asked was: “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.”

[Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names].
Fifty-nine percent named Sen. Aquino and 45% named Senator Manny Villar.

No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.
Aquino and Villar were followed by Sen. Francis Escudero at 27%, and former Pres. Joseph Estrada at 18%.

he survey found then Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro mentioned by 8%, Sen. Loren Legarda by 4%, Sen. Mar Roxas by 3%, and Vice-President Noli de Castro by 3%.

Two percent gave an unspecified answer, “Aquino”.

At 1 percent each were Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Brother Eddie Villanueva, and then MMDA Chairperson Bayani Fernando.

The question wording has been exactly the same in ten surveys since September 2007, with results shown in Table 1.

Survey background

The surveys of September and December 2007, March and June 2008, and February and November 2009 had sample sizes of 1,200 adults, for error margins of ±3%.

The surveys of September and December 2008, and June 2009 had sample sizes of 1,500 adults, for error margins of ±2.5%.

The September 2009 survey had a sample size of 1,800 adults, for an error margin of ±2.3%. The May 2009 survey had a sample size of 7,000 registered voters, for an error margin of ±1.2%.

All surveys were conducted using face-to-face interviews.

Except for May 2009 (commissioned by Ms. Avic Amarillo in behalf of Senator Manuel Villar, Jr.) and November 2009 (commissioned by Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn), all the surveys cited in this release were non-commissioned; they were done on SWS’s own initiative as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.

All the findings from the earlier surveys have been previously released by SWS.

While oppositionist Senator Noynoy Aquino has maintained his impressive numbers, the gains registered by Senator Manny Villar and Lakas-Kampi-CMD combine standard bearer Gilbert ‘Gibo’Teodoro cannot be ignored.

One of this writer’s Palace sources notes: “Nonoy’s lead is obviously being eaten up now by both Secretary Teodoro and Sen. Villar.”

“The Liberal Party should not lull itself into thinking they have 2020 all sewn up,” my source noted adding,” even while Villar is supposedly ‘in the opposition’ he is really an ideological ally of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.”

Another source with links to Malacanang also told At Midfield: “our coalition remains solidly behind the efforts of Secretary Teodoro but a Villar presidency will not disappoint us.”
Coffee shop habitués have long been describing Sen. Villar as “a virtual clone of GMA  as far as his announced positions on the economy are and his approach toward addressing poverty.”

The coffee shop pundits also note how Villar “has really shied away from criticizing GMA along with voiding participation in recent political forums where questions have focused on the likelihood of Mrs. Arroyo being hounded by corruption charges after she leaves office on June 30, 2010.”

“Even as we cheer the improved ratings of Secretary Teodoro, the truth is only Mr. Villar is within striking distance of Noynoy Aquino,” my Palace mole said.


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