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Of Dead Horses and ‘Cheatable’ Margins.

April 6, 2010

The polls are just a month away.

Now Pulse Asia, one of the two dominant political polling firms is saying this:

Liberal Party (LP) presidential candidate Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III, scoring a 37% voting preference, continues to lead the other presidential contenders. In second place is Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar (Nacionalista Party [NP]) with 25% voter support. Former President Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada is the only other candidate with double digit support, at 18%, while the other candidates register single digit voter preferences—LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro with 7%; Bagumbayan standard-bearer Senator Richard “Dick” J. Gordon at 2%; and, Bangon Pilipinas candidate Brother Eddie Villanueva, with 2% voter preference.   Nine percent of the survey respondents refused or remained undecided as to their presidential preference

http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=712

The closer examination of the survey details points to Nacionalist Party boss and billionaire standard bearer still getting the nod of one in every four Filipino voters.

While Liberal Party flag bearer Noynoy Aquino now ‘enjoys’ a 12% lead over Villar methinks this is not yet decisive.

A spread like this can be credibly described as with the ‘cheatable range’ in the context of traditional Dagdag Bawas-infused Philippine politics.

Aquino himself knows this.

As recently as yesterday, Aquino’s lead ‘vote security’ officer, lawyer and former GMA defense secretary Avelino Cruz complained on TV about “disturbing actions by the Commission on Elections that diminish public faith in its integrity, and ability to guarantee that the May 10 automated polls will be devoid of fraud, even automated fraud.”

Going back to the Pulse Asia report above what is crystal clear, except to those who cannot accept the truth is how the chances of Arroyo candidate Gilbert ‘Gibo’ Teodoro have now plateaued if not stagnated at the between 6 and 7 percentage points.

All three knowledgeable polling experts this writer has consulted are unanimous in this diagnosis:

Mr. Teodoro has less than the proverbial ‘Chinaman’s chance’ of overhauling his rivals’ lead and actually chalking up a a fair and honest come-from-behind win.

This writer is asking himself  if the fears of the election being stolen are becoming more credible given how the COMELEC itself is performing, as earlier noted here:

http://atmidfield.com/2010/02/03/the-elections-under-seige-is-digital-dagdag-bawas-possible-update/

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