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The Numbers Game In The 2010 Elections

April 1, 2009

2010-wannabees-gallery

The candidacy filing deadline for next year’s elections are nine months away so the political waters are starting to settle somewhat.

The weather vane is the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Survey done last month.

Here’s the main table:

sws-latest-feb-2009-2010-polls

http://www.sws.org.ph/

Breaking the story over at FilipinoVoices.com, here’s colleague Carlo Ople’s take on the numbers:

The latest SWS survey results are out and it looks like there’s a change of momentum. Buoyed by his aggressive stance against Legacy and Celso delos Angeles, Senator Mar Roxas surged with +5 rating points for the month of February. Another big gainer is Senator Escudero, who has also been harping on the same issue. The sudden change in points indicates that people can still change their mind with regards to who they will vote for in 2010 given the stand of potential candidates in key issues facing the country. Those who registered significant gains were the politicians who were very vocal about Legacy, Spratly’s, and all the other problems that made the headlines.

Almost all other candidates experienced a slight decline in their ratings save for De Castro who dropped 4 whole points. This survey might have irked Senator Villar a bit since he hit a plateau yet he’s still one of the biggest spenders so far with his tri-media campaign on OFW’s. Then again maintaining your spot probably costs a lot of money too, hehe.

What this survey is telling me that it is still anyone’s ballgame. The next few months will be critical for aspiring Presidents in 2010. Where they stand on pressing issues will determine their fate and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of people in this list rise up and crack into the top 4. Sudden 5-point movements a year heading into the election really shows that the battle hasn’t been decided yet.

Note that this is just a survey and is not 100% indicative of the will of the people. This short post is merely drawing analysis from the numbers presented by the study.

http://filipinovoices.com/feb-09-sws-survey-results-anyones-ball-game

Carlo is on the button.

But looking at the numbers more closely it appears to me that former Pres. Estrada’s dreams of running again are being tempered by the reality that he now ranks 7th among the wannabees.

While Sen. Romas, the Liberal party’s standard bearer are finally climbing, these must become more substantial.

In the case of his rumored running mate, Sen. Lacson, it bears close watching what the reopening of the probe into the Dacer-Corbito double murder’s impact will be.

The lead of Sen. Legarda over Sen. Escudero can no longer be ignored given that they both belong to Danding Cojuangco’s nationalist People’s Coalition.

villanueva-velarde1

Not  yet factored in the SWS survey yet is the just announced pairing of Jesus Is Lord leader Eddie Villanueva and the equally charismatic El Shaddai ‘servant leader’ Mike Velarde.

Indeed a lot more will happen between now and November 30.

The political bettors, including the funders, are surely looking at their checkbooks more closely now.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. April 2, 2009 12:01 pm

    kahirapan minsan ang nagtutulak sa iba nating kababayan na pumili ng kandidato nang ‘di masyado nag-iisip. Nauuna sa kanilang isipan kung ano ang kanilang ganansya o kung sino ang mas sikat o mabango sa paningin. malalim na pagmumuni ang kailangan ng sambayanang Filipino para tuluyan natin makuha kahit paano ang kandidatong “least evil” sa listahan. Kung hindi, panibago simula ng termino pero putik na naman ang kahihinatnan ng bayan.

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